What the Bank of Canada’s Latest Rate Hold Means for You

Emily Miszk
Jul 30
3 min read

July 30th 2025 meeting - my take - by Em Miszk

The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate steady at 2.75% today, which was expected by most economists. This decision comes as the Bank continues to monitor how inflation, tariffs, and trade uncertainty are playing out across the Canadian and global economy.

Here’s a quick breakdown of what’s happening and what it means:

🇨🇦 What’s going on in Canada?

After a strong start to 2025, our economy slowed in the second quarter. This dip was mainly due to lower demand from the U.S. and a drop in exports after businesses rushed to ship goods earlier in the year to avoid tariffs.
Business and household spending has cooled off because of economic uncertainty.
While some sectors are feeling the pinch, especially those impacted by trade, other areas of the job market are holding steady.
Unemployment has gradually increased and now sits at 6.9%, while wage growth has slowed.

💸 What about inflation?

Inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) was at 1.9% in June, slightly higher than May.
If you exclude taxes, it’s closer to 2.5%, mostly due to rising prices for goods (excluding energy).
Housing costs are still the biggest contributor to inflation, but that pressure is slowly easing.
The Bank believes underlying inflation is hovering around 2.5%, which is still above their target of 2%.

🌎 What’s happening globally?

U.S. tariffs are disrupting trade, but the global economy has remained fairly resilient so far.
In the U.S., inflation is starting to creep up and there are early signs that tariffs are being passed on to consumers.
Europe and China are holding up modestly, and oil prices have remained fairly stable.
Global stock markets have been positive, and the Canadian dollar has strengthened against the U.S. dollar.

🔮 What’s the outlook?

The Bank didn’t release its usual economic forecasts this month because of the unpredictable nature of global trade and tariffs. Instead, it shared three possible scenarios — one where tariffs continue as they are, one where tensions ease, and one where they escalate.

Here’s what the Bank is expecting if things stay the same:

Canadian GDP is expected to rebound slightly in the second half of 2025 (after this quarter’s decline), growing by about 1%.
Inflation is expected to stay close to 2%, though that could change if tariffs go up or down.
If trade disruptions stay manageable and the economy continues to cool, the Bank hinted that a rate cut could be on the table down the road.

⚖️ What this means for you

The Bank of Canada is keeping a close eye on the balance between slowing economic growth and rising costs from trade issues. Their goal is to maintain price stability while giving the economy room to breathe.

For homeowners, buyers, and anyone carrying debt, this rate hold means:

No immediate changes to variable-rate mortgages or lines of credit
Fixed rates are more influenced by the bond market, which has seen some upward movement lately — so we’ll be watching that closely
It’s still a good time to review your mortgage strategy, especially if you’re coming up for renewal or thinking about making a move in the next 6–12 months

Next Bank of Canada rate announcement:📅 September 17, 2025 — I’ll be sharing an update then with what changes (if any) are announced and how that could affect your plans.

Have questions about how this impacts you or your mortgage?Let’s chat. Whether you’re buying, renewing, or planning ahead, I’m here to help you make sense of it all.

Ready to chat about your goals?Visit www.emilycallme.comEmily MiszkMortgage BrokerBRX MortgageFSRA #13463