Market Update: What I’m Watching Right Now

Mar 25
3 min read

There’s a bit of a push and pull happening in the market right now, and it’s important to understand both sides.

On one hand, rising oil prices and inflation concerns are pushing bond yields higher, which is putting upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates. On the other hand, the Canadian economy is clearly slowing, and that should limit how aggressive the Bank of Canada can be moving forward.

My main takeaway: Don’t just watch prices right now. Watch supply. Listings are starting to roll over, construction is slowing, and that could tighten inventory faster than many expect.

Rates & The Economy

We’ve seen a quick spike in bond yields over the past few weeks, largely tied to global uncertainty and rising oil prices.

But at the same time, the data at home is soft:

Job losses picked up in February
Full-time employment dropped
Ontario and Quebec are showing clear signs of weakness
Private sector hiring is under pressure

The labour market isn’t as strong as the headline unemployment rate suggests.

What this means:Fixed rates may stay a bit volatile in the short term, but a weakening economy should cap how high they can realistically go.

First-Time Buyers Are Driving the Next Cycle

This next phase of the market is shaping up to be led by first-time buyers, not investors.

We’ve had a decade where ownership rates for people aged 25–39 have declined significantly. That’s created a large group of “delayed buyers” who are still looking to enter the market.

As affordability improves slightly and confidence returns, we’re starting to see that group re-engage.

What this means:This is a key opportunity to focus on first-time buyer strategies, education, and planning.

Population Shifts Matter (But Not in the Way You Think)

Canada’s population dipped last quarter, mainly due to fewer non-permanent residents.

But permanent residents are still growing, which is what really drives long-term homeownership demand.

What this means:This trend is more negative for the rental market than for resale housing.

Construction Is Quietly Becoming a Big Story

We’re seeing:

Single-family construction at multi-decade lows
Condo starts declining
Rental construction still strong (for now)

Over time, this reduction in new supply—especially detached homes—can create upward pressure on prices.

What this means: Less building today = tighter inventory tomorrow.

Rental Market Is Softening

Rents have been trending down for over a year now, and more supply is coming online.

In some cases, unsold condos are being turned into rentals, which only adds more pressure.

What this means:It’s becoming a more challenging environment for investors and landlords in the short term.

Mortgage & Credit Trends

We’re starting to see some stress build:

Delinquencies are rising (still low overall, but trending up)
Renewal payment increases are real this year
Consumer debt levels remain high

At the same time, insured mortgage activity is picking up, which suggests first-time buyers are stepping back in.

What this means:Consumers are feeling pressure, but the market is not breaking—it’s adjusting.

Housing Market: Prices vs Supply

Prices have come down meaningfully from peak levels, especially in Ontario.

But here’s the shift I’m watching closely:

New listings are slowing down
Inventory growth is starting to stall
We could see inventory tighten again this spring

What this means:The conversation may shift from “prices are falling” to “there isn’t enough inventory.”

The Consumer Picture

There’s a mix of signals:

Insolvencies are rising
Credit card balances are increasing
Savings are coming down

But at the same time, household net worth is still at record levels.

What this means:The consumer is stretched, not broken.

Bottom Line

Expect some short-term volatility in fixed rates
The slowing economy should limit major rate increases
First-time buyers are the biggest opportunity right now
The rental market is soft
Supply—not just pricing—could become the defining story later this year

If you’re thinking about buying, renewing, or just trying to make sense of where things are heading, this is a market that really benefits from having a plan.

Ready to chat about your goals?

Visit www.emilycallme.com

Emily Miszk Mortgage Broker BRX Mortgage FSRA #13463