Curveballs, Trade Talks, and Mortgage Moves: When the Market Starts Playing Hardball (Go Jays)...

Just when we thought the fall market was finding its rhythm, the world threw us another curveball - puns within fully intended.

A few weeks ago, Prime Minister Carney was confidently suggesting we’d see an interim trade deal with the U.S. in a matter of weeks. Fast forward — and President Trump has not only scrapped the talks entirely, but also added another 10% tariff on Canadian imports.

And the reason? An Ontario commercial featuring Ronald Reagan’s old warnings about tariffs and protectionism made its way south of the border — and apparently hit a nerve. Carney hinted the ad may have been behind the “unexpected twists and turns” in negotiations. Hit up youtube if you want to have a look. After a few airs the ad was shut down in the US.

Sometimes it’s not the fastballs that change the game — it’s the unexpected spin on the next pitch.

The Market’s Game Plan Just Shifted

Trade tensions are back on the field, shaking investor confidence and sending money toward the safety of government bonds. That flight to safety has nudged bond yields a bit lower, which means some good news for fixed mortgage rates (for now).

Meanwhile, U.S. inflation stayed flat at 3%, giving both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada a bit more breathing room to ease policy. Markets are now pricing in a 94% chance of a BoC cut and 97% chance for the Fed this week — a rare moment of alignment on both sides of the border.

In baseball terms?We’re heading into the late innings with both teams signaling they might ease up on their pitching. But as we know — one unexpected swing (or political soundbite) can flip the game fast.

Why This Matters for your game

Trade drama and economic uncertainty might make for messy headlines, but they also tend to keep borrowing costs lower.

It’s not ideal for overall growth, but for homeowners and buyers, it’s like catching a fastball right down the middle — a small window to lock in lower rates before the next move.

Markets can only stay calm for so long before the next pitch comes your way. Please note all of this talk for 29 Oct has everything to do with PRIME and variable or ARM mortgages. Fixed rates do not change based on BOC meetings.

What’s On Deck

Both central banks meet this week, and odds favour a 0.25% rate cut on each side of the border. That means potential relief for variable-rate borrowers, and maybe a little more stability for those looking to renew.

But like any good game — momentum can shift quickly. If you’re on deck to buy, refinance, or renew, now’s the time to hold your rate and stay ready.

The Bottom Line

The global economy can feel a lot like baseball — full of strategy, surprises, and the occasional controversial call.

Sometimes a political ad you didn’t even see coming can change the pace of play. Sometimes patience at the plate pays off. And sometimes, when rates dip, it’s the perfect moment to swing.

As we head into the final stretch of October:

• October 29: Bank of Canada meeting

• October 31: My kids will be dressed as a Unicorn and a Ninja 🦄🥷

• November 1: Banks reset their fiscal year — Happy “New Year” to the institutions that support our clients!

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Let’s see what Q1 brings for rates, lenders, and the opportunities ahead.

Questions always welcomed www.emilycallme.com