Bank of Canada Meets Tomorrow – Here's What You Need to Know

The Bank of Canada announces its next rate decision this Wednesday, April 16.

Will they cut rates this week?Not likely.

Markets are currently pricing in a 39% chance of a rate cut, and a 61% chance they hold steady. The first full rate cut is now expected in September, rather than this spring — but, as always, that could shift.

What about the U.S.?The U.S. Federal Reserve meets on May 7. Markets are only pricing in a 21% chance of a cut there. Since U.S. policy impacts Canada, the Bank of Canada may hold off on rate cuts to prevent further pressure on the Canadian dollar.

Housing market context:A recent Royal LePage survey shows that nearly half (47%) of prospective buyers are delaying their purchase decisions due to uncertainty tied to U.S. trade tensions. While surveys can’t always paint the full picture, this one was fresh — over 2,400 Canadians responded just last week. National results can be viewed here

https://www.royallepage.ca/en/realestate/news/a-tale-of-two-markets-real-estate-activity-trending-up-in-canadas-more-affordable-regions-treading-water-in-the-most-expensive/

April mortgage volumes are currently tracking fairly flat year-over-year, based on data from several major lenders. This broker did ok but it is getting harder and harder with clients placing plans on hold. We are absolutely not seeing the massive spring market we were expecting and promised. At per usual we saw an increase of agents letting their licences expire (March being renewal for Ontario.)

With sales activity cooling and inventory levels rising to five-year highs, all eyes are now on home values. Confidence is low, inflation concerns are growing, and we’re seeing more appraisals come in under asking. Add in population shifts from recent immigration policy changes, and the economic ripple effects of trade and tariff-related layoffs — and we’re looking at a more cautious market ahead.

In short, don’t expect the BoC to move just yet — and don’t expect a spring market rebound until some of this uncertainty clears. Keep your eyes on the bond markets and let's see what the Canadian election, bonds and US market/ political situation bring into Spring / Summer 2025. Buckle up if it is anything like Q1 this rollercoaster is not over just yet.

weeeeeeeeeeeeeee!